Knicker-Blogger's Second-Half Preview

For the sake of argument, for the sake of this website, and for the sake of rationalizing all the money that has been spent on ticket plans, souvenir cups, and throwback jerseys (purchased thankfully on ebay rather than at the Garden) let us say that the Knicks are going to pull themselves up by their high-top straps and make the playoffs. Let us talk about this with out a hint of cynicism, let us drink the kool-aid that they must have been serving at Knicks practice yesterday as everyone talked about the playoffs and second-half turnarounds.

The New York Knicks, currently with a record of 21 wins and 32 losses, will make the 2005 NBA playoffs if.....

1) The Knicks can make the playoffs IF they can stay healthy. Over the late stretch of horrible-ness they have been decimated by injury. For this team to turn it around they need Timmy Thomas' finger to heal, Nazr's groin to stay strong, Crawford's ankle to holdup, and the Junkyard Dog's foot to stay on the floor. And of course, it wouldn't hurt to have Houston's knees un-arthritic.

(and speaking of Houston....)

2) The Knicks can make the playoffs IF Allan Houston realizes that he is not going to get back to 100% this season. If Allan were to realize his current limitations and accept them, he could still play 15-20 minutes most nights. Even as he has dragged his knees around the court this season the majesty of his jumpshot is still unmistakable.

3) The Knicks can make the playoffs IF they play better down the stretch than every other team in the Atlantic and the Chicago Bulls. Not to just state the obvious, I've broken out the abacus, carried the 1, and done the math on this:

The teams that the Knicks currently trail in the Atlantic are Boston (-6 games), Philadelphia (-5) games and New Jersey (-2 games). Of these teams, only Boston and Philly would qualify for the playoffs if they started today. Boston would be the 3rd seed as the winner of the Atlantic Division and Philly would be the 8th seed. New Jersey should be mentioned along with these two as the old and newly-improved Vince Carter gives the Nets a puncher's chance to make a run. Lastly, the Chicago Bulls would be the 7th seed out of the central division.

How many of the Knicks remaining 29 games will they have to win to pass these teams for a playoff spot?

The crime lab down at Knicker-Blogger headquarters has come up with a formula to tabulate how these competing teams will likely finish the season.
Top-Secret Super Formula:
3 parts current winning pct. + 1 part winning pct. over last ten games

By this math (and be forewarned that the Knicker-Blogger has no love of math, and majored in English as a younger man), the teams will finish with the following records:
Boston: 46-36
Philly: 42-42 or 41-43
NJ: 39-43
Chicago: 45-37

Boston won't likely finish that well, but we must trust in the power of the formula (and least the knowledge that between Boston/Philly/NJ one of them will finish that well). So, if these records are approximately accurate then the Knicks need go at least 20-9 down the stretch which would put them at 41-43. Realistically (well, not really), they probably need to go 21-8 or 22-7, unless two of the teams above them collapse. Now, Philly or Boston collapsing seems about as likely as NJ making a good run (read: likely to quite likely), but that still leaves the Knicks outside looking in.

Looking at the remaining games it isn't out of the question (as long as the question is being answered by the type of folk reading this site) for the Knicks to actually do this. Giving them the wins they should have (against the likes of Atlanta, Charlotte, etc.) the team must win 6-8 of the "tough" games.

Tough Games:
Indiana (they play Indiana 3 more times and I have placed one of the two home games into the "should win" category), Washington (also 1 of the two home games against Washington is a "should win."), Seattle, Miami, San Antonio, @Detroit, @Orlando, @Miami, @Seattle, @Lakers (the home game versus the Lakers is a questionable "should win."), @NJ (home game versus NJ is in "should win" category, but is more of a "must win."). @Indiana, and @Cleveland.

Should the Knicks win 6-8 of these and win the easier games on the schedule they will be in contention to for a playoff spot in the last week of the season...

Tough Game #1 is tonight in Detroit. This game holds "tough game" status only because the Pistons are the defending champs (and because they walloped the Knicks last time the teams met). Still, the Pistons have been lackluster and inconsistent this season, and have shown themselves to be beatable.

Please pass the kool-aid, Maholo.